Elegran Insights: Weekly Manhattan Market Data For The Week of 1/25/21

Written By Jared Antin | January 25, 2021 | Published in Real Estate Market Trends, Elegran Insider
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For the third week in a row the Manhattan market continued to see fewer new apartments come to market and more deals went into contract compared to the same week of 2020 last year. The Market Pulse [a ratio between pending sales and supply], an indicator of leverage between buyers and sellers, held steady at 0.44.

Supply decreased a fraction of a percent this week, to 7,259 units, likely nearing the bottom. This week 277 new Manhattan listings came to market, 13% fewer than the same week last year. This is the 4th consecutive week where fewer new listings came to market compared to the same week last year. Over those 4 weeks, an average of 17% fewer listings came to market this year.

Pending Sales rose another 1% this week to 3,205. While pending sales continues to increase week-over-week, the rate of increase is slowing. The current level is unusually high for January, given the 2020’s robust Q4 in terms of contract volume.

Contracts Signed - 178 new contracts were signed this week, a dip from from the last few weeks, but is higher than the same week last year. This is the 9th consecutive week with more contracts signed this year compared to the same week last year. Over those 9 weeks, an average of 31% more contracts were signed this year.

Manhattan Rental Market Update

The Manhattan rental market has been more impacted from COVID than the sales market. The rental market had 30-50% more inventory than normal come to market during the summer and fall. That trend is starting to reverse now, and the rental market may be nearing the bottom. As more renters signed leases in the fall, the overall Manhattan rental inventory continues to decrease, down to 11,164 this week from a peak of 14,367 in the middle of September 2020.

Similar to the sales market, for four weeks in a row, fewer new rental listings came to market and more apartments were rented this year than the same week last year. An average of 7% fewer listings came to market and an average of 40% new leases were signed this year compared to the same period last year. As the rate of absorption [leases signed] is outpacing new supply, the surplus in inventory is beginning to get absorbed.

Comparing Median Rental and Sales Prices

Rental asking prices are down about 20% year-over-year, but data shows that the bottom may have hit for rental prices.

The spread between median closed sales price and median asking rents have widened over the last 6 months, highlighting the divergent trend between the sales and the rental market. The sales market has recovered, as indicated by firming prices, whereas the rental market has continued to decline, but appears to be finding the bottom.

New Development Insights

According to MarketProof, over 60 new New Development contracts were signed in NYC last week — the highest weekly total since July, another indicator of the rebound in buyer activity

These three new development buildings reported the most contracts signed last week:

  • The Neighborly in Long Island City
  • 49 Chambers in Tribeca
  • 30 East 31st Street in Nomad

Please contact me if you would like to learn more about these, or other new developments.

If you are interested in learning more about what is possible in today’s market and what the data means for you, I am available for a confidential complimentary assessment and consultation

*Charts courtesy of Urbandigs

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