Research Note: 2021 Spring Supply Projections

Written By Jared Antin | February 25, 2021 | Published in Real Estate Market Trends, Elegran Insider
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Research Note, Elegran Insights: Inventory seasonality is out the window. What should buyers and sellers expect this Spring? Here is what Elegran Insights Forecasts Based on the Data

There is a correlation between Supply and Listing Discounts. The higher the supply, the larger the listing discount. Coming off a decade-high supply, COVID uncertainty and a spring shutdown, buyers have gotten relatively steep discounts from sellers. Where those discounts will go has a lot to do with how much supply will come to market this spring.

Seasonally, we have become accustomed to expect the pattern of a busy Spring and Fall market. Listings usually start to come on the market in January and supply peaks in late May and bottoms at the end of August. In the Fall, the process repeats, with listings coming on the market immediately after Labor Day and peaking in mid-to-late October and bottoming at the end of the year.

Additional Takeaways From Inventory seasonality is out the window. What should buyers and sellers expect this Spring? Include:

  • Buyers expecting discounts to rise in the coming months, as typical for seasonality when inventory increases, may be disappointed as we expect the new inventory to be absorbed rather quickly given strong buyer activity.
  • Sellers who are looking to sell should list now, rather than waiting.
  • Bidding wars for well-priced inventory will be on the rise for desirable and well-priced listings.


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