Elegran Insights: Weekly Manhattan Market Data For The Week of 03/08/21

Written By Jared Antin | March 08, 2021
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The Manhattan market continues to accelerate as buyers are increasingly motivated to transact given the recent jump in interest rates. Liquidity has returned to the Manhattan market and the market pulse for the sub $2M market has entered sellers market territory. Market-wide, overall supply, despite an uptick in new weekly supply, continues to decline each week largely due to robust contract activity. The overall market pulse rose to 0.54 this week. 

Source: Urban Digs

As we approach the 1-year mark since COVID and the NYC shutdown, comparing the weekly numbers to the same week last year no longer informs the complete story. Accordingly, the weekly comparisons will now be based on the same week in 2019.

Supply decreased another 1% to 7,041 units for sale. This week 397 new listings came to market, 25% higher than last week and 2% less than the same week in 2019. Supply is 10% higher than the same time in 2019. This week saw the most new inventory since October.

Pending Sales increased another 3.5% this week to 3,786 and is 46% higher than this time last year and 65% higher than 2019.

Contracts Signed - 322 contracts were signed this week, an 18% increase from last week and 46% higher than the same week in 2019. This week had the highest weekly contract volume since May 2016

Weekly Contract Activity Analysis - Of the contracts signed this week, and based on the last asking price, the median price was $1.2M and the median size was 1,248 square feet. The contracted median price [based on last asking price] has been holding steady for the last month. 

The Weekly Market Pulse decreased slightly from 0.86 last week to 0.81 this week, but remains at an elevated level compared to 2019 when the weekly market pulse was 0.54. 

The Luxury Market vs the $2M Segment

While the luxury market has recovered significantly from the recent covid inflicted lows, the market pulse for the luxury market is still soft compared to at the peak in 2014-2015. The below chart, which goes back to January 2010, highlights how seldom the luxury market is a buyers market, and how today presents a compelling opportunity for buyers, as the market pulse is heading back towards a sellers market. 

The under $2M market pulse, similar to the luxury market hit a low during covid, and has quickly recovered and has just entered sellers market territory, quickly approaching levels last seen in 2017

The Manhattan Rental Market continues to see overall supply drop, 9,679 units are available, the first time rental supply is under 10k since before the shutdown ended last June. This week 687 new units came to market, 11% less than the same week in 2019, and 571 new leases were signed, 16% less than the same week in 2019. Week over week, both the volume of new inventory and new leases signed remained stable. The weekly rental market pulse is 0.83 compared to 0.89 for the same week in 2019. 

New Development Insights

As reported by Marketproof, 80 new development contracts were signed last week, an uptick from the prior weeks. In February, 275 new development contracts were reported, making it the most active month since January 2020, and the second most active month since July 2019. Additionally, 40% of the signed contracts were for 2-bedroom apartments, 30% for 1-bedrooms and 20% for 3-bedrooms. Studios and 4+ bedrooms each made up less than 5% of the contract volume. 

In the last week, the following were the top selling new developments:

  • 130 William Street in the Financial District reported 4 new contracts signed.
  • The New York Dock Building in Red Hook reported 4 new contracts
  • 49 Chambers in Tribeca reported 3 new contracts
  • One United Nations Park in Murray Hill reported 3 new contracts
  • 98 Front Street in Dumbo reported 3 new contracts
  • The Benny in Prospect Lefferts Gardens reported 3 new contracts

Please contact me if you would like to learn more about these, or other new developments.

We will continue sharing the Elegran Insights data analysis with you every week.

If you are interested in learning more about what is possible in today’s market and what the data means for you, I am available for a confidential complimentary assessment and consultation.

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