Week of 10/10

The Autumn Awakening: NYC Real Estate's Subtle Uptick

The gradual transition from the slow pace of summer to the energy of fall is becoming evident in NYC's real estate market. This week, optimism simmers beneath the surface, with consumer sentiment making a modest ascent to a +2* score.

Yet, we are poised on the brink of a more significant shift. The momentum of the fall market is already swirling, a narrative momentarily veiled due to the 7 to 10-day reporting lag we spotlighted last week. This interim period sees real-time, vibrant market activity waiting to be echoed in our forthcoming reports.

In this context, we are excited to unveil our enhanced NYC, Manhattan, and Brooklyn indexes. Refined and recalibrated, they now account for both seasonal nuances and indicator lag. They promise an unprecedented clarity, a penetrating gaze into the real-time pulse of consumer sentiment.

So, let’s dive into this week’s data. 

*A score of +2 means that demand for NYC residential real estate is currently 2% stronger than it was during the benchmark pre-pandemic period, January 5, 2015 to February 29, 2020.

Manhattan Supply

From its trough in early September, Manhattan’s real estate supply has swelled to an imposing 7,124 units, starkly contrasting the 171-unit demand. This climb is expected to peak soon, signifying a momentary abundance.

Contrary to national trends where limited supply inflates prices, Manhattan has ample choice, with a supply volume that lessens the traditional competitive fervor. With an overflow of options, the market is poised for buyers to explore a variety of choices, potentially at competitive prices, before the supply curve begins its downward trajectory.

Brooklyn Supply

Brooklyn's real estate supply is in a state of subtle flux. A decrease is noted this week, with available units dropping to 3,233 from last week’s 3,266. This decline is slight yet indicates we may have reached the peak of supply for the season. 

Despite the week-to-week decline, an oversupply prevails, with the current availability significantly outstripping the demand of 107 units. We will have to check back  to see if the numbers decline further or if we get another supply bump before winter settles in.

Manhattan Pending Sales

Manhattan's pending sales have experienced a slight uplift, moving from 2,600 to 2,610 units this week. This modest ascent suggests that the seasonal low has potentially been reached and surpassed. We are now witnessing the early signs of a rise aligning with the onset of the Fall season, indicating a revived momentum in the market.

Brooklyn Pending Sales

Brooklyn pending sales are exhibiting a steady course, with figures slightly receding from 1,856 to 1,854 units this week. This minor fluctuation aligns with the typical patterns observed during this season, indicating that the market might be nearing its customary October bottom. Despite the slight dip, the stability underscores the borough's resilient market character, hinting at a subsequent upswing as we progress deeper into the fall season. 

Manhattan Consumer Sentiment

Manhattan’s consumer sentiment is showing signs of improvement, rising from -14 to -10 this week. Although it remains in negative territory for the sixth week, the uptick of 171 contracts signed, up from last week’s 138, indicates growing buyer confidence. 

The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties index, now enhanced to include indicator lag alongside seasonal adjustments, promises more accurate, real-time insights. As we progress into fall, this upward trend in sentiment hints at a recovering optimism within Manhattan’s esteemed real estate landscape.

Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment

Brooklyn’s consumer sentiment is exhibiting a strong pulse, climbing to a +38 score this week from +27. 

The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Index, now fine-tuned for both seasonal and indicator lags, captures a 38% uplift from the pre-pandemic baseline. With 107 contracts inked this week, up from 91, Brooklyn's market vibrancy is evident. 

New Development Insights 

Marketproof reported that 37 new development contracts were signed in 34 buildings this week.  The following buildings were the top-selling new developments of the week:

• THE WEST RESIDENCE CLUB (Clinton), 
• SKYLINE TOWER (Long Island City), and 
• EDEN CONDOMINIUM (Long Island City) 

Each reported 2 contracts.

If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity, feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or connect with one of our Advisors.

About Us

Welcome to Elegran, where our mission is to revolutionize the world of real estate. Founded in 2008 by Michael Rossi, our journey began with an unwavering drive for motivation, innovation, and a genuine care for our clients.

As an independently owned brokerage, we pride ourselves on our elite team of "advisors," offering a personalized touch that goes above and beyond the traditional real estate experience. Armed with robust data insights, we empower our clients to make informed decisions that lead to success.

Distinguished as the exclusive member of the invitation-only Forbes Global Properties network in NYC, Elegran proudly stands at the forefront of excellence. This exclusive partnership broadens our horizons, enabling us to connect buyers, sellers, and investors with extraordinary luxury properties not only in New York City but across the globe.

Our passion lies in turning your real estate dreams into reality, and we are committed to providing exceptional service at every step of the journey.

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