Week of 9/25/23

Summer Ends on Predictable Low Note in NYC Real Estate

As summer's warmth gives way to the brisk onset of fall in New York City, the residential real estate sector continues to follow its historic trends. Just as leaves take their timely descent, consumer sentiment towards the city's property market witnesses a characteristic decline. Last week, marking the close of summer, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties NYC Consumer Sentiment Index reported a score of -8, which means that the current demand for NYC residential real estate is trailing by 8% compared to the pre-pandemic period.

However, looking back at past trends, this dip is expected and aligns with the city's regular real estate pattern. In the Spring of 2021, a surge of pent-up demand catapulted the Consumer Sentiment Index to an impressive +105. But by summer's end, it mellowed down to +9. The subsequent year mirrored this trajectory—rising to +89 in Spring, only to settle at +7 as summer bid adieu. This year's pattern, with a peak of +67 in Spring tapering off to –8 now, seamlessly aligns with this established rhythm.

Far from signaling a weakening market, these rhythmic highs and lows are a testament to the city's enduring appeal and the resilient nature of its property landscape. This cycle underscores NYC's perennial charm and the pulse of its real estate market. 

Manhattan Supply

In line with historical trends shown in the accompanying chart, Manhattan's property supply bottomed out in early September. Since then, it's experienced a notable rise, reaching 6,862 units. This trajectory is projected to continue, with a peak anticipated in late October.

The importance of supply count varies across markets. In many regions, limited supply can lead to heightened demand, driving prices significantly higher. However, the dynamics in Manhattan are distinct. Here, an overabundance of supply often overshadows demand. As evidence, this week alone presents a stark supply-to-demand ratio of 6,862 units to a mere 129 units, underscoring the unique nature of the Manhattan real estate market.

Brooklyn Supply

Brooklyn's distinct real estate landscape is once again echoing its historical trends. After dipping to 2,995 units three weeks prior, the supply has surged to 3,201 units this week. Given the stark contrast between the 3,201 units on offer and a weekly demand of merely 98 units, Brooklyn's market is abundant in supply, likely preventing any upward pressure on prices.

Manhattan Pending Sales

Manhattan, the heart of NYC's real estate pulse, always offers intriguing insights. The latest data reveals an expected trend in pending sales. Numbers have slightly receded from 2,806 to 2,706 units, pointing towards a gentle contraction in market activity. As the season transitions, we anticipate this metric to reach its lowest by the end of this month or early next, in line with annual patterns. Such fluctuations are a regular facet of the market, reaffirming Manhattan's dynamic yet predictably cyclical nature.

Brooklyn Pending Sales

This week, the pending sales data followed expected seasonal patterns, registering a decline from 1,957 to 1,904 units. As autumn deepens, a further descent is anticipated, likely continuing through October. This gentle ebb in sales underscores the cyclical rhythms inherent to Brooklyn's market, a testament to its vibrant and ever-evolving character.

Manhattan Consumer Sentiment

Manhattan, often viewed as the benchmark for NYC's broader real estate sentiments, has exhibited some fluctuating consumer sentiments recently. The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Index highlights this trend, revealing a slide from –18 to –27 this week. 

Though the index has stayed in the negative for five consecutive weeks, indicating a somewhat subdued enthusiasm for Manhattan residential real estate, it's essential to note the broader context. With 129 contracts signed this week, down from 152 the previous week, the market displays a mix of discernment and optimism. As always, Manhattan's market dynamics require a nuanced understanding, acknowledging both the short-term variations and the long-standing resilience.

Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment

This week, Brooklyn's real estate market exhibits a tempered yet optimistic sentiment. According to the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index, the borough registered a score of +40, down from +65 the previous week. Despite this drop, it's crucial to recognize that the sentiment remains 40% above its seasonally adjusted pre-pandemic average. Furthermore, with 98 contracts inked this week compared to 120 in the preceding week, Brooklyn's market showcases a subdued optimism. This consistent positive sentiment, traced back since July 2020, highlights Brooklyn's enduring attractiveness in NYC's real estate landscape.

 New Development Insights 

As reported by Marketproof, this week, 38 new development contracts were reported across 31 buildings.  The following buildings were the top-selling new developments of the week:

• TRIBECA GREEN (Battery Park City) 
• 2025 OCEAN AVENUE (Midwood) 

Each reported 3 contracts.

If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity, feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or connect with one of our Advisors.

About Us

Welcome to Elegran, where our mission is to revolutionize the world of real estate. Founded in 2008 by Michael Rossi, our journey began with an unwavering drive for motivation, innovation, and a genuine care for our clients.

As an independently owned brokerage, we pride ourselves on our elite team of "advisors," offering a personalized touch that goes above and beyond the traditional real estate experience. Armed with robust data insights, we empower our clients to make informed decisions that lead to success.

Distinguished as the exclusive member of the invitation-only Forbes Global Properties network in NYC, Elegran proudly stands at the forefront of excellence. This exclusive partnership broadens our horizons, enabling us to connect buyers, sellers, and investors with extraordinary luxury properties not only in New York City but across the globe.

Our passion lies in turning your real estate dreams into reality, and we are committed to providing exceptional service at every step of the journey.

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