NYC Market Finds Its Autumn Equilibrium as Momentum Moderates

After several weeks of brisk fall activity, New York City’s residential market entered a steadier phase. Manhattan inventory slightly contracted, while Brooklyn’s supply plateaued after a month of steady gains. The Howard Hanna NYC Consumer Sentiment Index eased from 45% to 38%, suggesting a measured cooling as buyers and sellers begin adjusting expectations ahead of the winter season.

Transaction velocity remains firm compared to last year, but both boroughs now show early signs of seasonal moderation rather than fatigue -  a healthy recalibration after a strong October stretch.

Seasonal Shift Begins

The market showed its first sustained signs of autumnal moderation. While new contracts remain above 2024 levels, both boroughs are moving into a more balanced rhythm as active inventory and new listings begin to taper. The sentiment softening mirrors the city’s typical late-October cadence - calm, but not cold. Pending sales indicate overall market stability, with Manhattan seeing marginal strength as Brooklyn cools slightly from its early-fall surge.

Outlook

Forecast models based on recent listing absorption rates indicate that Manhattan and Brooklyn are likely to see a 3–5% decline in new contracts over the next two weeks, consistent with typical pre-holiday patterns.
Still, both boroughs maintain stronger momentum than in Q4 2024, positioning the market for a comparatively firm winter baseline.

Manhattan Supply: Subtle Contraction After Steady Growth

Manhattan’s inventory contracted slightly to 6,839 homes (–1.2% WoW, –0.3% YoY). New listings declined to 286 units (–8.3% WoW) yet remain 19% higher than last year, signaling that sellers are still confident despite the seasonal slowdown. The borough’s market has entered a controlled correction phase, neither constrained nor flooded - a sign of underlying equilibrium.

Brooklyn Supply: Plateau Before the Holidays

Brooklyn’s overall supply increased marginally to 3,636 homes (+0.4% WoW, +7% YoY), marking its fourth consecutive week of modest gains.

New listings fell to 181 units (–15.4% WoW, +50% YoY) as sellers begin to pull back ahead of Thanksgiving and the quieter winter months.

Manhattan Pending Sales: Pending sales decreased +0.7% to 2,934 units.

Brooklyn Pending Sales: Brooklyn’s pending sales rose -1.9% to 1,768 units.

Manhattan Consumer Sentiment: Cooling but Consistent

Contracts signed rose to 257 deals (+1.2% WoW, +34% YoY), nudging the Howard Hanna NYC Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Index from +29% to +31%. Buyers remain active in sub-$2M inventory, while high-end segments are slowing in line with broader seasonal expectations.

Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment: Gradual Ease After Strong October

Brooklyn logged 129 signed contracts (–7% WoW, –5% YoY), with Howard Hanna NYC Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index sentiment declining from +79% to +67%.

While a mild contraction, it follows one of the borough’s strongest months of 2025 — evidence that the current pullback is likely short-term normalization, not a retreat.

New Development Insights 

Marketproof tracked 44 new development contracts across 32 buildings. Top performers included:

• Claremont Hall (Morningside Hills) signed 4 contracts

• The Towers of The Waldorf Astoria (Midtown) signed 3 contracts.

If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity,

feel free to contact us at contact@hhnyc.com or 

connect with one of our Advisors.

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