Weekly Manhattan & Brooklyn Market: 12/12

Week of 12/12/22

Third verse; same as the first. Thanksgiving holiday week data is an outlier and must be discarded. As such, this week is a review of last week’s discussion. We focus heavily on demand, and we do so because demand is a litmus test of market health. If demand can manage to remain at historically normal levels despite the menu of national and global headwinds — and manage to remain average following an 18-month record-setting period — the market, we believe, remains healthy and strong. In review:

• Overall, demand for NYC residential real estate continues to match or exceed its pre-pandemic average.
• Over the past two months, demand for primary market product (new dev) has slipped from parity with its pre-pandemic average to –25% below that average.
• Demand for secondary market product (resale) is trending +19% above its pre-pandemic average.
• Demand for Manhattan is underperforming its pre-pandemic average by –16%.
• Demand for Brooklyn is outperforming its pre-pandemic average by 82%.
• “pre-pandemic average” refers to the period January 5, 2015 to March 1, 2020

Manhattan Supply decreased again this week to 6,747 units. 168 new listings came to market, in sync with 2019.

Brooklyn Supply decreased again this week to 3,211 units while 123 new listings came to market.

Manhattan Pending Sales have landed softly after dropping precipitously towards the end of July as mortgage rates decisively cooled demand (first chart below). At 2,464 units, this week looks much like the numbers during 2018–2019 (second chart below)

Brooklyn Pending Sales, like Manhattan’s numbers, are looking for a bottom after dropping rapidly during the summer when mortgage rates breached 5%.

Manhattan Contracts Signed — This week, 145 contracts were signed in Manhattan, an expected bounce-back following the Thanksgiving holiday slowdown, which typically extends into the following week.

Brooklyn Contracts Signed — Brooklyn posted 121 signed contracts this week.

New Development Insights

As reported by Marketproof, this week, 48 new development contracts were reported across 40 buildings. The following were the top selling new developments of the week:

• 208 Delancey Street (Lower East Side)
• The Cortland (West Chelsea)

Please contact me if you would like to learn more about these, or other new developments.

We will continue sharing the Elegran Insights data analysis with you every week.