Week of 6/26/23

Surging Consumer Sentiment Confirms a Thriving Summer Market

At first glance, this week may seem like a modest change. The number of contracts signed in NYC only increased by one from the previous week. However, an important and significant development emerges when we consider the historical seasonal demand for this time of year.

The Elegran | Forbes Global Properties NYC Consumer Sentiment Index, which compares contract activity to historical averages, reveals an undeniable surge in consumer sentiment. This week, consumer sentiment soared from a score of +12 to an impressive +38, highlighting a remarkable shift in buyer outlook and confidence.

What triggered this leap? This week marked our transition from the active spring to the historically slower summer season.

Considering the historically slower season, the strength of the demand becomes even more impressive. Demand has remained robust for an astounding 22 consecutive weeks, demonstrating a vibrant market. Our earlier predictions of exceptional summer demand are starting to come true, setting the stage for a potentially thriving market driven by pent-up demand and increased interest from foreign buyers.

Manhattan Supply

This week, we observed a decrease in supply from 7,479 to 7,427 units. It's important to note that this decline aligns with the expected trend, as we anticipate reaching a low point by late August or early September.

Why does the supply count matter? Well, in many national markets where supply is limited, it exerts upward pressure on pricing. However, with the current supply of 7,427 units and a weekly demand of 212 contracts, the supply factor is not significantly impacting the pricing needle.

Brooklyn Supply

This week, we observed a slight decrease in supply from 3,303 to 3,301 units. The decline in supply is right on cue, as Brooklyn gradually makes its turn from the peak in June towards the late summer and early fall trough. While the supply-to-demand ratio alone may not drive price increases, it's worth noting that there are still more units available than needed to meet the weekly demand of 148 units.

Manhattan Pending Sales

This week, the metric decreased from 3,253 to 3,227 units, confirming that Manhattan has reached the anticipated June peak. As we progress through the summer season, we can anticipate a decline in pending sales, leading to a trough in late September to early October.

The chart below visually represents the historical pending sales data, enabling us to anticipate future market movements and patterns. It serves as a valuable tool for understanding the rhythm of the Manhattan real estate market

Brooklyn Pending Sales

Similar to Manhattan, Brooklyn follows a seasonal pattern in terms of pending sales. However, unlike Manhattan, Brooklyn has not yet reached its expected June peak.

This week, we observed an increase in pending sales from 2,050 to 2,083 units. As we approach the anticipated peak, we can expect pending sales to continue rising until they reach their highest point, typically in June. Following this peak, a decline in pending sales is projected through late September or early October.

Manhattan Consumer Sentiment

This week, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Manhattan Consumer Sentiment Index registered a Consumer Sentiment Score of  +12 this week, up from –15 last week!

It is essential to note that this significant positive shift in the Consumer Sentiment Score comes as we transitioned from the robust spring season to the historically quieter summer season. In terms of contracts, 212 contracts were signed, higher only slightly from the 207 signed the previous week.

Despite this seasonal shift, consumer sentiment remains remarkably positive, indicating a strong and resilient market. The contrast between the pronounced positive shift in the Consumer Sentiment Score and the marginal increase in the number of contracts signed emphasizes the impact of the seasonal transition on sentiment.

Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment

This week, the Elegran | Forbes Global Properties Brooklyn Consumer Sentiment Index registered a Consumer Sentiment Score of  +109 this week, up from +89 last week.  Contracts, however, fell slightly from last week, from 150 to 148.  The noticeable week-over-week difference between the Consumer Sentiment Score and contract tally is that we have just transitioned from a traditionally more active Spring to a traditionally less active Summer, and this seasonality is reflected in the Consumer Sentiment Score.

New Development Insights 

As reported by Marketproof, this week, 67 new development contracts were reported across 52 buildings.  The following were the top-selling new developments of the week:

• TRIBECA GREEN (Battery Park City), 450 WASHINGTON (Tribeca), and CONDOS @ 251 SAINT MARKS (Prospect Heights) each reported 4 contracts.
• ONE HIGH LINE (West Chelsea) and 11 HOYT STREET (Downtown Brooklyn) reported 3 contracts.

If you would like to chat about the most recent market activity, feel free to contact us at info@elegran.com or connect with one of our Advisors.

About Us

Elegran’s mission is to ‘humanize the world of real estate’ through a client-first and thoughtful technology philosophy. A distinguished Forbes Global Properties member for New York City’s five boroughs and winner of the Most Innovative Brokerage Award from Inman, Elegran’s talented team of agents delivers client-centered service, resulting in eight times more sales volume sold per agent than the industry average.